Cotton Dropped On Profit Booking After Prices rose As US Has Lower Ending Stocks

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March 11, 2024 Cotton Candy prices showed resilience, settling with a marginal gain of 0.03% at 62,700 after an initial surge driven by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicating lower ending stocks for the 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet. The report highlighted increased exports and reduced mill use. A cold spell in China affecting crop cycles and reduced acreage in the U.S. contributed to a global cotton shortage, supporting prices. However, profit booking ensued, tempering the upward momentum. The Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA) advised textile mills to avoid panic buying as cotton prices rise, anticipating a global supply increase post-July.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a decrease in net sales for 2023/2024, down 69% from the previous week and 83% from the prior 4-week average. The February WASDE report showed a 355,000 bales reduction in the projected world cotton production for 2023/24, with lower ending stocks and production. Indian cotton exports surged in February to the highest level in two years, reaching 400,000 bales, as global prices made Indian cotton attractive for Asian buyers. India's total cotton production is expected to fall 7.7% to 29.41 million bales in 2023/24, the lowest since 2007/08.

Technically, the cotton market witnessed short covering with a -0.82% drop in open interest, settling at 364. Prices increased by 20 rupees, with support at 62,500 and potential testing of 62,300 if breached. Resistance is likely at 63,000, and a move above could see prices testing 63,300. Traders should monitor these levels amidst evolving global supply dynamics and demand patterns to make informed decisions in the Cotton Candy market.

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